Asia is the world’s consumption growth engine—miss Asia and you could miss half of the global picture, a $10 trillion consumption growth opportunity over the next decade. But Asia’s consumer markets are changing dynamically with new growth angles that offer opportunities for financial services players and consumption curves that are shifting or mutating. Financial services players should consider how to redraw their Asian consumer maps.
New McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research finds that three large shifts are playing out across the region. First, as incomes rise across Asia, more consumers will reach the highest tiers of the income pyramid, and movement within the consuming class is likely to be a larger driver of consumption growth than movement into it. Second, cities will continue to drive consumption growth, but promising sources of growth are increasingly diverse cohorts within cities, such as Insta-grannies in Seoul, Generation Z gamers in Surabaya, career moms in Manila, and lifestyle-indulging digital natives in Chengdu. Third, as the relationship between income and consumption breaks down in some instances, new consumption curves are emerging in specific categories (Exhibit 1).
Asian consumers are likely to demand more financial services
Asian consumers are expected to account for half of global consumption growth in the next decade, equivalent to a $10 trillion growth opportunity. Globally, one of every two upper-middle-income and above households is expected to be in Asia, and one of every two completed consumer transactions in the world is likely to occur in the region.
An increasing number of people are projected to join the consuming class, defined as spending more than $11 a day in 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. In 2000, only 15 percent of Asia’s population was part of the consuming class; the incomes of the remaining three billion people were still insufficient to support discretionary spending. However, over the next decade, a significant reversal is likely. By 2030, three billion people, or 70 percent of Asia’s total population, may be part of the consuming class.
As more consumers experience rising incomes, their financial needs are likely to increase and become more sophisticated. McKinsey’s Global Banking Pools project that total revenue pools in the region are likely to grow at around 7 to 8 percent per annum over the next five years, driven by an increased number of consumers accessing financial services and by existing consumers increasing their uptake of services. MGI research indicates that most consumption growth in the coming decade will be urban, and driven by higher-income consumers—85 percent of consumption growth is expected to originate in urban areas, and 80 percent is expected to be driven by the two top tiers of the consuming class.
However, more than ever, patterns of consumption and consumption growth are diversifying, reflecting demographic, social, and technological change.
New growth angles are emerging in financial services
Amid significant shifts in consumer patterns and sources of growth, most sectors are likely to be disrupted in the next decade, financial services among them. What should financial services players look out for? MGI’s research highlights eight growth angles that are particularly relevant to financial services and offer new opportunities to serve consumers in the region (Exhibit 2).
The big convergence could reshape the role of financial services players. Digital ecosystems are prevalent in Asia. Many consumers take a “mobile-first” approach, fueling the rise of digital ecosystems, including highly integrated super apps that offer a one-stop-shop for a range of services. Although super apps emerged in China, Asian economies including India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam now have leading super app players.
As digital ecosystems and super apps mediate relationships with an increasing number of customers, financial services players may consider how to define effective partnerships with those that orchestrate ecosystems. Fast-growing embedded finance is an example of how financial services players can take part in the new digital ecosystem. From 2020 to 2025, embedded finance—financial services distributed in an embedded way as part of a nonfinancial product or service—could grow by as much as 60 percent a year in products ranging from embedded payments to insurance and lending.
Banks may consider embedded finance plays and banking-as-a-service platforms in order to become effective and innovative participants in ecosystems. ICICI Bank in India, for instance, embedded basic banking services on WhatsApp and scaled up to one million users in only three months from its launch. Banks and insurance companies with sufficient appetite and capabilities may create and orchestrate their own ecosystems, too. State Bank of India built YONO, an app with more than 100 partner-provided products and its own financial products, which dramatically increases customer engagement. DBS in Singapore is another example of pursuing ecosystem-linked opportunities. The bank runs marketplaces in travel, mobility, and property, and an application planning interface (API) developer platform. Slower respondents risk being disintermediated.
However, financial service players enjoy one starting point advantage: consumers still trust financial service players more than technology ones in being able to fulfill their financial needs. According to McKinsey’s 2021 Personal Finance Survey, Asian banks, card providers and e-wallet providers enjoy the highest levels of trust (70 to 75 percent), compared with technology players (65 percent) or social media companies (55 percent).
- New notions of ownership may require financial services players to further review their product mix. Economic pressures, changing consumer attitudes, and technology have prompted many Asian consumers to consider alternatives to traditional ownership. Sharing, rental, and subscription economies are gaining traction in, for instance, mobility, fashion, electronics, and housing. As Asian consumers consider new forms of ownership, some conventional financial products such as home insurance and car loans may start to become less relevant. In response, players may need to innovate to create new sources of growth, including, for instance, insurance products targeted at the sharing economy. In some cases, players may find opportunities by participating in other ecosystems. In Australia, for instance, ShareCover, which is part of Australia’s largest general insurance group, IAG, offers home insurance for hosts renting out their property on platforms like AirBnb and car insurance for ride-share drivers, who typically have not been covered by personal home insurance or car insurance.
- Digital natives are reshaping their relationship with financial institutions. Digital natives (people born between 1980 and 2012) are expected to account for 40 to 50 percent of Asia’s consumption by 2030. With variations within the region, Asia’s digital generation tends to use non-Asian social media platforms, messaging apps, and digital payments providers and follow local social media influencers, but uses Asian e-commerce platforms. These younger generations are reshaping relationship with financial services players. They are more likely to explore alternative financial services. In China, for instance, the share of consumers aged 21 to 24 who hold credit cards is more than 20 percentage points lower than that of the older generation.
Opportunities to serve digital natives include point-of-sale financing with flexible maturities reflecting the fact that this cohort tends to take on more debt to finance consumption than others. In particular, digital natives have displayed that they are open to embedded finance propositions such as buy-now-pay-later services. The…
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